New York Open Briefing: Thursday, July 16, 2026

Welcome to the New York Open. The session begins with a cautious tone following declines in Asian and European equities. The JP225 is down -1.17%, the USTEC is lower by -1.07%, and the DE40 has fallen -0.97% since the reference point. The US500 also shows a -0.44% decline. This backdrop aligns with a RISK METER reading of -0.05, indicating a slight risk-off sentiment. In currency markets, GBPUSD is down -0.21% while EURGBP has gained +0.17%.

Earlier data releases showed mixed results. US Unemployment Claims came in at 215K, slightly below the 216K consensus. Canadian CMHC Housing Starts were reported at 238.971K, significantly missing the 259.178K consensus with a -7.8% surprise. From Brazil, Retail Sales y/y was 0.4%, below the 1.8% consensus, though Retail Sales m/m was 0.1%, exceeding the -0.5% consensus. In the UK, the NIESR GDP Estimate was 0.4%, below the 0.6% consensus, and the 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction cleared at 5.04%. Over the past 24 hours, GBP has shown strength, up +0.38%, while the USD is the weakest, down -0.41%.

Attention will now turn to upcoming US data, with Retail Inventories excl. Autos m/m and Retail Inventories m/m both scheduled for 14:00 UTC. The consensus for Retail Inventories m/m is 0.6%. Later in the session, Fed Governor Jefferson Speech is set for 23:00 UTC, followed by President Trump Speaks at 01:00 UTC on Friday. Crowd positioning data indicates a 9pt shift toward short on EURUSD and an 8pt shift toward long on XAUUSD over the last 24 hours.

The Fed Governor Jefferson Speech at 23:00 UTC is the most significant event remaining for the day.

Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)

Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.