New York Open Briefing: Thursday, October 1, 2026
The New York session opens with a slightly risk-on tone, as indicated by the Risk Meter at +0.13. Equity markets show mixed performance, with the DE40 up +0.59% while the UK100 is down -0.27%. In forex, the USD has been the strongest performer over the past 24 hours, gaining +0.36%, while the JPY is the weakest, down -0.31%. This dynamic has seen EURJPY decline by -0.34% and GBPJPY by -0.25%, with EURUSD also down -0.22%. Gold, XAUUSD, is up +0.29%.
Early in the session, Initial Jobless Claims for the USD came in at 197K, below the consensus of 201K. This data point showed a -2.0% surprise. Attention now shifts to a series of high impact data releases and speeches. At 13:45 UTC, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak, followed by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the USD, with a consensus of 52.6 against a previous 53.9. At 14:00 UTC, the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid for the USD is due, with a consensus of 76.3 compared to a previous 71.1. Also at 14:00 UTC, FOMC Member Waller is scheduled to speak, alongside the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the USD, which has a consensus of 54.8 after a previous 54.6.
In positioning shifts, the crowd book on USDX moved 9pt toward short in the last 24 hours. Retail books show a 20 point disagreement on EURJPY. Looking ahead, the Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y for the JPY is due at 23:30 UTC.
The most important item ahead for this session is the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the USD.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since the previous session | DE40 +0.59%, EURJPY -0.34%, XAUUSD +0.29% |
| Currency strength, 24h | USD strongest at +0.36%, JPY weakest at -0.31% |
| Risk meter | +0.13 (mildly risk-on) |
Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 UTC | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | Medium | – |
| 13:45 UTC | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech | High | – |
| 13:45 UTC | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | High | 52.6 |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 76.3 |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Medium | – |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | Fed Governor Waller Speech | Medium | – |
| 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 54.8 |
| 23:30 UTC | JPY | Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y | High | 2.3% |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.