NZD Unemployment Rate preview: Consensus expects slight increase
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| NZDUSD | — | — |
The New Zealand Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on 2026-08-04 at 22:45 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a slight increase to 5.4%, up from the previous reading of 5.3%. This economic indicator is rated as having a High impact on the market, as changes in employment figures can influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook and broader economic sentiment.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across NZD crosses. Based on our data, the median 1-hour move for EURNZD after past releases was 33 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 59+ pips over 39 releases since 2015. GBPNZD experienced a median 1-hour move of 36 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 74+ pips over 40 releases. For NZDUSD, the median 1-hour move was 15 pips, and top-quarter releases moved 27+ pips over 40 releases. AUDNZD saw a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 35+ pips over 39 releases.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The May 2026 release reported an actual 5.3% against a forecast of 5.5%, leading to a +17 pips 1-hour move for NZDUSD. In February 2026, the actual 5.4% matched the forecast, with NZDUSD moving -16 pips in one hour. The November 2025 print was 5.3% against a 5.2% forecast, resulting in a -11 pips move for NZDUSD.