PCE Price Index y/y comes in at 3.7% against 3% consensus

The PCE Price Index year over year for the United States, released on 2026-08-26 at 12:35 UTC, came in at 3.7%. This figure was higher than the consensus expectation of 3%, representing a 23.3% surprise versus consensus. The previous reading for this indicator was also 3.7%.

Measured market reaction 15 minutes after the release showed the US Dollar generally strengthening. AUDUSD was down 7.2 pips, EURUSD down 9.1 pips, GBPUSD down 16 pips, and NZDUSD down 9.9 pips. USDCAD was up 6.6 pips, USDCHF up 8.5 pips, and USDJPY was up 17 pips. XAUUSD was down 64 pips. Comparing these to historical data, the 15-minute moves for AUDUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, and USDCAD were smaller than their median 1-hour moves of 8 pips, 11 pips, 8 pips, and 13 pips respectively. The GBPUSD 16-pip move was larger than its median 1-hour move of 13 pips. USDCHF’s 8.5-pip move was larger than its median 1-hour move of 7 pips. USDJPY’s 17-pip move was larger than its median 1-hour move of 10 pips. XAUUSD’s 64-pip move was larger than its median 1-hour move of 29 pips, placing it within the top-quarter of historical moves for this asset, which are 50+ pips.