PCE Price Index y/y comes in at 3.7% against 4.5% consensus

The US PCE Price Index year over year, a key inflation gauge, was released today, July 30, 2026, at 3.7%. This figure came in below the market consensus expectation of 4.5%. The previous reading for the index was 4.1%.

Following the release, market reactions were observed across major pairs. Fifteen minutes after the data, AUDUSD was up 0.9 pips, EURUSD was up 5.2 pips, and NZDUSD was up 0.5 pips. GBPUSD was down 0.3 pips. Among USD crosses, USDCAD was up 3.6 pips, USDCHF was up 0.3 pips, and USDJPY was down 17 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, was up 7.2 pips. For most pairs, these initial moves were smaller than their respective median 1-hour moves observed after past releases. For example, EURUSD’s 5.2 pips was less than its median 1-hour move of 11 pips, and XAUUSD’s 7.2 pips was less than its median 1-hour move of 29 pips.