PPI m/m (USD) preview: Consensus anticipates a rebound

The US Producer Price Index, or PPI m/m, is scheduled for release on August 13, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.2% increase for the month, a notable rebound from the previous reading of -0.3%. As a key inflation indicator, the PPI provides insight into price pressures at the producer level, which can eventually filter through to consumer prices. This release carries a High impact rating, suggesting its potential to influence market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Historically, this release has been associated with significant price action across major currency pairs. After past PPI releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 23+ pips. For AUDUSD, the median 1-hour move was 7 pips, and top-quarter releases moved 13+ pips. NZDUSD typically saw a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 12+ pips. USDJPY, USDCAD, and USDCHF all recorded a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips, 18+ pips, and 17+ pips respectively. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 32 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 54+ pips. These statistics are based on 116 to 120 releases since 2015, depending on the pair.

Recent PPI m/m releases have shown varied outcomes compared to forecasts. The July 2026 release registered an actual -0.3% against a forecast of 1.6%, with EURUSD moving +11 pips in the hour following. In June 2026, the actual figure was 1.1% compared to a 1.0% forecast, resulting in a +3.7 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The May 2026 print was 1.4% versus a 0.4% forecast, leading to a 0.0 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.