RBA Widely Expected to Hike 25bp to 4.85% on Tuesday; Deutsche Bank Lone Call for Hold
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| AUDUSD | — | — |
- RBA expected to hike 25bp to 4.85% on Tuesday
- 31 of 32 economists forecast a hike; Deutsche Bank sees hold
- Q3 headline inflation rose to 4.3% y/y
- ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision at 2:30pm Sydney time on Tuesday (0330 GMT), and markets widely expect a 25bp hike to 4.85% from 4.60%. Per one survey cited, 31 of 32 economists forecast a hike, with Deutsche Bank the only one calling for a hold. It would be the RBA’s fifth hike of 2026, and some banks flag the risk of another move in February.
ING backs a November hike rather than waiting until December, noting that headline inflation rose 90bp between July and September to 4.3% y/y, with fuel costs a factor. JPMorgan has also joined the hike camp and sees a persistent tightening bias. ING has lifted its AUD/USD target to 0.71.
Other regional data this week includes China’s PMI figures, South Korea’s trade and inflation data, Japan’s wage growth and Taiwan’s inflation. Hong Kong releases preliminary Q3 GDP and September retail sales on Tuesday.