Sydney Open Briefing: Friday, October 2, 2026
The Sydney session opens following a risk-off close in global equity markets. European and US indices saw declines, with the DE40 down 1.00%, UK100 falling 0.69%, and the US30 dropping 0.46%. The JP225 also declined by 0.44%. In currency markets, USDCHF was down 0.63% and EURUSD fell 0.46%. The overall risk meter registered at -0.16, indicating a slight risk-off sentiment. CHF was the strongest currency over the last 24 hours, gaining 0.89%, while EUR was the weakest, declining 0.63%. A hawkish Federal Reserve speech scored +0.75.
During the upcoming Tokyo session, attention turns to Japanese inflation data. At 23:30 UTC, the Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y is due, with a consensus forecast of 2.3% following a previous 2%. The Tokyo Core CPI y/y is also scheduled at the same time, with a consensus of 2.4% against a prior 1.8%. Retail books show a 21-point disagreement on EURUSD. Furthermore, the crowd shift on USDCHF moved 9pt toward long in 24 hours, and on EURCHF, the book moved 14pt toward long over the same period.
Looking ahead to the European session, a series of Euro Area inflation figures are scheduled for 09:00 UTC. The CPI y/y has a consensus of 3%, down from a previous 3.2%. The Euro Area Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y is expected at 2.5%, up from 2.4%, and the Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y consensus is 3.7%, compared to 3.3% previously. The Core CPI previous reading was 103.06. Other European data includes Spain Unemployment Change at 07:00 UTC, with a consensus of 6.847K. Brazil’s FIPE CPI m/m is also due at 08:00 UTC, with a consensus of 0.24%.
Traders will likely focus on the incoming Tokyo inflation data as the session progresses.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since the previous session | DE40 -1.00%, UK100 -0.69%, USDCHF -0.63% |
| Currency strength, 24h | CHF strongest at +0.89%, EUR weakest at -0.63% |
| Risk meter | -0.16 (mildly risk-off) |
Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 UTC | JPY | Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y | High | 2.3% |
| 23:30 UTC | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | Medium | 2.4% |
| 07:00 UTC | EUR | Spain Unemployment Change | Medium | 6.847K |
| 08:00 UTC | BRL | FIPE CPI m/m | Medium | 0.24% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | CPI y/y | High | 3% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | Core CPI | Medium | – |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | Euro Area Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Medium | 2.5% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Medium | 3.7% |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.