Sydney Open Briefing: Thursday, October 1, 2026

The Sydney session opens with a generally risk-off tone following declines across major equity indices. The US30 fell -1.17%, the DE40 was down -1.03%, and the JP225 dropped -0.88%. Gold, XAUUSD, also saw a -1.35% decline. The Australian Dollar was the weakest performer over the last 24 hours, down -0.51%, while the risk meter registered a slightly risk-on +0.09.

Overnight, the EIA reported significant surprises in US oil inventories. EIA Gasoline Stocks Change came in at -1.684M against a consensus of -0.397M, a surprise of -324.2%. EIA Distillates Stocks Change was -2.251M versus -0.913M consensus, a -146.5% surprise. The EIA Refinery Utilization Rate Change was -1.5%. Just ahead of the Sydney open, the BoJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index was released at 26, meeting consensus, while the BoJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook registered 16, below the previous 17. The BoJ Tankan Large All Industry Capex rose to 13.8%, above the previous 11.5%. A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve was noted with a speech score of +0.35. Retail books show a 20 point disagreement on EURUSD, and crowd positioning shifted 9 points toward short on both GBPCHF and GBPJPY in the last 24 hours.

For the Sydney session, traders will focus on the Trade Balance (AUD) due at Thu 01:30 UTC, with a consensus of -0.245B following a previous 1.923B. Later in the session, Nationwide HPI y/y (GBP) and a speech from BoE Governor Bailey (GBP) are scheduled.

The Trade Balance (AUD) release will be a key focus for local markets.

Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)

Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.