Sydney Open Briefing: Thursday, September 17, 2026
The Sydney session opens with significant overnight USD strength, gaining +0.70% on the 24h currency strength meter. This followed the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which came in at 3.75% against a 4.00% consensus, a -6.3% surprise. However, the accompanying statement scored +0.85 on the hawkish side, suggesting a firm stance. Strong US retail sales figures also supported the dollar, with Retail Sales y/y at 6% versus 3.5% consensus, a +71.4% surprise. This combination contributed to significant moves, including XAUUSD dropping -1.80%, NZDUSD falling -0.90%, and USDJPY rising +0.68%. The overall risk meter registered +0.33, indicating a slight risk-on tone despite equity indices like US30 and US500 declining -1.43% and -0.78% respectively.
Beyond the interest rate decision, US retail data showed broad strength. Retail Sales excl. Autos and Gas m/m was 1.2% against a 0.3% consensus, a +300.0% surprise. Retail Control m/m came in at 1.4% versus 0.9% consensus, a +55.6% surprise. Core Retail Sales m/m was 1.4% against 0.5% consensus, a +180.0% surprise, and Retail Sales m/m was 1.2% versus 0.3% consensus, also a +300.0% surprise.
Looking ahead in the Sydney session, traders will monitor New Zealand data. New Zealand GDP q/q is due at Wed 22:45 UTC, with a consensus of 0.1% following a previous 0.8%. Concurrently, GDP Annual Change (NZD) is expected at 0.9%, up from a previous 0.8%. Later in the European session, ECB Executive Board Member Lane Speech (EUR) is scheduled for Thu 07:00 UTC. European inflation figures will also be released, with CPI y/y (EUR) consensus at 2.8%, matching the previous 2.8%. CPI m/m (EUR) consensus is 2.9%, also matching the previous 2.9%. Core CPI y/y (EUR) consensus is 2.4%, matching the previous 2.4%.
The market will closely watch the upcoming New Zealand GDP q/q release for directional cues.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since the previous session | XAUUSD -1.80%, US30 -1.43%, NZDUSD -0.90% |
| Currency strength, 24h | USD strongest at +0.70%, CHF weakest at -0.29% |
| Risk meter | +0.33 (risk-on) |
Scheduled this session (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 UTC | NZD | New Zealand GDP q/q | High | 0.1% |
| 22:45 UTC | NZD | GDP Annual Change | Medium | 0.9% |
| 07:00 UTC | EUR | ECB Executive Board Member Lane Speech | Medium | – |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | CPI y/y | High | 2.8% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | CPI m/m | Medium | 2.9% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | Core CPI y/y | Medium | 2.4% |
| 09:00 UTC | EUR | Core CPI | Medium | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.