The Week Ahead in Forex: August 30 to September 4, 2026
The week ahead, from August 30 to September 4, 2026, is set to feature several high-impact economic data releases and central bank policy decisions, with a particular focus on the US dollar and key commodity currencies. Recent market moves show the USD gaining against the NZD, CAD, CHF, and GBP, with NZDUSD down -1.09% and USDCAD up +1.00%. Gold, XAUUSD, has seen a decline of -3.23%.
Sunday concludes with Japan’s Retail Sales m/m at 23:50 UTC, with the consensus at -0.6% following a previous -4.1%. As the new week begins, Monday’s calendar highlights the US MNI Chicago Business Barometer at 13:45 UTC. The consensus forecast is 58.9, an increase from the previous 57.6.
Tuesday brings a busy schedule for both the Eurozone and the US. Eurozone CPI y/y is due at 09:00 UTC, with a consensus of 3.1% against a prior 2.9%. CFTC data indicates non-commercial net positions in EUR are -36.4K, while retail books show a 13pt shift toward long on EURUSD over the last 24 hours. Later, US manufacturing data will be in focus with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 13:45 UTC, expected at 55.5, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC, with a consensus of 55.2. The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid will also be released at 14:00 UTC, with a consensus of 63.5.
Wednesday is packed with central bank activity. Australia’s GDP q/q is first at 01:30 UTC, with the consensus matching the previous 0.3%. Shortly after, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its Interest Rate Decision at 02:00 UTC, with a consensus of 2.75%, up from 2.50%. This will be followed by the RBNZ Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Statement, and a Press Conference at 03:00 UTC. Retail books show a 22 point disagreement on NZDUSD, and a recent crowd flip saw NZDUSD books move from 55% short to 61% long. In North America, the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is expected at 14K at 12:15 UTC, down from 44K. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will then release its Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement at 13:45 UTC, with the consensus holding at 2.25%. USDCAD has seen a crowd flip from 61% long to 51% short in the last 24 hours.
Market participants will be observing how these economic indicators and central bank communications influence currency valuations and broader market sentiment, particularly given the recent USD strength and shifts in retail positioning.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | XAUUSD -3.23%, DE40 +1.67%, NZDUSD -1.09% |
| Currency strength, 24h | USD strongest at +0.51%, NZD weakest at -0.23% |
| Risk meter | +0.41 (risk-on) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23:50 UTC | JPY | Retail Sales m/m | High | -0.6% |
| Mon 13:45 UTC | USD | MNI Chicago Business Barometer | High | 58.9 |
| Tue 09:00 UTC | EUR | CPI y/y | High | 3.1% |
| Tue 13:45 UTC | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | High | 55.5 |
| Tue 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 63.5 |
| Tue 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | 55.2 |
| Wed 01:30 UTC | AUD | Australia GDP q/q | High | 0.3% |
| Wed 02:00 UTC | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | High | – |
| Wed 02:00 UTC | NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | High | – |
| Wed 02:00 UTC | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | High | 2.75% |
| Wed 03:00 UTC | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | High | – |
| Wed 12:15 UTC | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | High | 14K |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | High | 2.25% |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | CAD | BoC Rate Statement | High | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.