The Week Ahead in Forex: July 19 to July 24, 2026
The week ahead for forex traders opens with a notable lean towards risk-off sentiment, as indicated by a Risk Meter reading of -0.47. Major equity indices have seen declines, with the JP225 down -6.16%, USTEC falling -4.24%, and the US500 lower by -1.66%. Gold, XAUUSD, also retreated -2.46%. Amidst this backdrop, the NZDUSD stands out with a +1.34% gain since the reference point. The economic calendar is set to deliver several high-impact data releases, particularly focusing on inflation and central bank policy.
Monday brings significant inflation data, starting with Canada’s Trimmed CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, and CPI m/m at 12:30 UTC. Consensus for Trimmed CPI y/y is 2.0%, matching the previous figure, while CPI m/m is expected to be -0.2% after a prior 1.0%. Later, at 22:45 UTC, New Zealand’s CPI q/q will be released, with a consensus of 1.5% following a previous 0.9%. This comes as retail books show a 30-point disagreement on NZDUSD positioning.
Tuesday will see the release of the UK Claimant Count Change at 06:00 UTC, with a consensus of 28.3K compared to the previous 31.2K. This follows a notable shift in retail positioning on GBPUSD, where the book went from 61% short to 50% long in the last 24 hours.
Midweek, on Wednesday, the UK’s inflation picture will be in focus with the UK CPI y/y at 06:00 UTC, expected at 2.7% against a prior 2.8%. In the afternoon, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the US is due at 14:30 UTC, with a consensus of 1.978M after a previous -1.692M. CFTC data shows non-commercial net positions in Crude Oil are significantly long at 62.7K.
Thursday is poised to be a pivotal day, beginning with Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 01:30 UTC. Consensus for Employment Change is 15.2K, down from a previous 40.3K, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.4%. The European Central Bank (ECB) then takes center stage, with its Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision (previous 2.25%), and ECB Interest Rate Decision (consensus 2.40%, previous 2.40%) all at 12:15 UTC. This will be followed by the ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference at 12:45 UTC. CFTC data indicates non-commercial net positions in EUR are short at -12.6K.
These scheduled events, combined with current market sentiment and positioning shifts, will provide key insights into the prevailing economic narratives and policy expectations for the week.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | JP225 -6.16%, USTEC -4.24%, XAUUSD -2.46% |
| Currency strength, 24h | CAD strongest at +0.22%, AUD weakest at -0.25% |
| Risk meter | -0.47 (risk-off) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12:30 UTC | CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | High | 2.0% |
| Mon 12:30 UTC | CAD | Median CPI y/y | High | 2.1% |
| Mon 12:30 UTC | CAD | Canada CPI m/m | High | -0.2% |
| Mon 22:45 UTC | NZD | New Zealand CPI q/q | High | 1.5% |
| Tue 06:00 UTC | GBP | UK Claimant Count Change | High | 28.3K |
| Wed 06:00 UTC | GBP | UK CPI y/y | High | 2.7% |
| Wed 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | High | 1.978M |
| Thu 01:30 UTC | AUD | Australia Employment Change | High | 15.2K |
| Thu 01:30 UTC | AUD | Unemployment Rate | High | 4.4% |
| Thu 12:15 UTC | EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | High | – |
| Thu 12:15 UTC | EUR | ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision | High | – |
| Thu 12:15 UTC | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | High | 2.40% |
| Thu 12:45 UTC | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | High | – |
| Thu 12:45 UTC | EUR | ECB Press Conference | High | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.