The Week Ahead in Forex: November 1 to November 6, 2026
The week opens with central banks and US data sharing the calendar, and the RBA Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday is the anchor. Last week’s releases set the backdrop. Australian CPI y/y came in at 3.9% against 4.2% expected, while CPI q/q printed 1.3% against 1.1%. The RBNZ decision landed at 2.75% versus 3.00% expected, and the Fed held at 4.00% as forecast. Over the same period XAUUSD moved -3.03%, DE40 +2.63%, and USTEC -2.11%, while NZDUSD moved -1.21%. The Risk Meter sits at -0.04, close to neutral.
Monday has one high-impact item: ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, with consensus at 80.7 against a previous 77.9. It is the first read on US input costs this week, following Core PCE at 0.3%, in line with consensus.
Tuesday is the busiest day. The RBA Interest Rate Decision is due at 01:30 UTC, with consensus at 4.85% against a previous 4.60%. The Rate Statement, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement follow at 04:30 UTC. Positioning in AUDUSD is notable: the retail book went from 56% long to 60% short in 24 hours, and retail books disagree by 25 points on the pair. Later, the Congressional Elections are listed at 15:16 UTC, and US30 retail positioning has moved 11 points toward long in 24 hours. At 21:45 UTC, New Zealand reports Employment Change q/q (consensus 0.4%, previous 0.5%) and the Unemployment Rate (consensus 5.5%, previous 5.6%), which follows the RBNZ result.
Wednesday brings Eurozone CPI y/y at 10:00 UTC, with consensus at 3.4% against a previous 3.8%. EUR was the weakest currency over 24 hours at -0.20%. The US session then delivers ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at 13:15 UTC (consensus 64K, previous 90K), followed at 15:00 UTC by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus 55.2, previous 54.9) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (consensus 69.5, previous 74). EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change follows at 15:30 UTC. Retail books disagree by 26 points on USDJPY and 21 points on USDCHF.
Thursday opens with Australia Employment Change at 00:30 UTC, the second Australian release of the week after the RBA. Elsewhere, retail crypto books moved toward short, by 10 points on ETHUSD and 9 points on BTCUSD, and GBPUSD moved 8 points toward long.
The week’s data will matter most if the RBA outcome, the US price and jobs readings, and the euro area inflation print point the same way or sharply apart, since that determines how the current positioning is tested.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | XAUUSD -3.03%, DE40 +2.63%, USTEC -2.11% |
| Currency strength, 24h | CAD strongest at +0.12%, EUR weakest at -0.20% |
| Risk meter | -0.04 (balanced) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 15:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 80.7 |
| Tue 01:30 UTC | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | High | 4.85% |
| Tue 04:30 UTC | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | High | – |
| Tue 04:30 UTC | AUD | RBA Press Conference | High | – |
| Tue 04:30 UTC | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | High | – |
| Tue 15:16 UTC | USD | Congressional Elections | High | – |
| Tue 21:45 UTC | NZD | New Zealand Employment Change q/q | High | 0.4% |
| Tue 21:45 UTC | NZD | Unemployment Rate | High | 5.5% |
| Wed 10:00 UTC | EUR | CPI y/y | High | 3.4% |
| Wed 13:15 UTC | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | High | 64K |
| Wed 15:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 69.5 |
| Wed 15:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | High | 55.2 |
| Wed 15:30 UTC | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | High | – |
| Thu 00:30 UTC | AUD | Australia Employment Change | High | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.