The Week Ahead in Forex: September 20 to September 25, 2026
The trading week from September 20 to September 25, 2026, opens with markets digesting a mixed set of recent US economic data. Retail sales figures significantly exceeded consensus, with Retail Sales y/y actual at 6% against a 3.5% consensus, a +71.4% surprise, and Retail Sales m/m actual at 1.2% versus a 0.8% consensus, a +300.0% surprise. This strong consumer activity was contrasted by a surprise Fed Interest Rate Decision, with the actual rate at 3.75% compared to a 4.00% consensus, a -6.3% surprise. The US Dollar has seen varied price action, with USDJPY up +2.16% since the reference point, while GBPUSD is down -0.98% and NZDUSD is down -1.55%. The Japanese Yen is the weakest currency over the past 24 hours, down -0.69%, contributing to gains in EURJPY by +1.22% and GBPJPY by +1.20%.
Monday, September 20, features several medium-impact events, including the BCB Focus Market Report (BRL) at 11:30 UTC. Later, ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR) at 15:00 UTC, followed by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (CAD) at 15:05 UTC. Recent Canadian data showed Building Permits m/m at -17.3% against a -4.7% consensus, a -249.1% surprise, which may be a topic of discussion. Retail books currently disagree by 22 points on USDCAD. The day concludes with Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence (NZD) at 21:00 UTC, with a consensus of 84.8 following a previous reading of 80.4.
Tuesday, September 21, brings a high-impact speech from RBA Gov Bullock (AUD) at 03:10 UTC. The Australian Dollar has seen a +0.22% gain over the last 24 hours. On Wednesday, September 22, the focus shifts to energy markets with the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD) at 14:30 UTC.
Thursday, September 23, is a busy day for central bank activity. Early in the session, Australia releases high-impact employment data, with Employment Change (AUD) at 01:30 UTC, consensus 20.9K, and the Unemployment Rate (AUD) at 01:30 UTC, consensus 4.5%. Later, the Swiss National Bank takes center stage with the SNB Policy Rate (CHF) at 07:30 UTC, followed by the SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF) at 08:00 UTC, with consensus at 0.00%. The Swiss Franc is the strongest currency over the past 24 hours, up +0.34%. Retail books currently disagree by 39 points on USDCHF. The SNB Press Conference (CHF) and SNB News Conference (CHF) are scheduled for 08:00 UTC and 08:30 UTC respectively. The Norges Bank Press Conference (NOK) also takes place at 08:30 UTC.
To close the week, Friday, September 24, features BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP) at 09:15 UTC. The British Pound has gained +0.28% over the past 24 hours, though GBPUSD is down -0.98% since the reference point. Retail books currently disagree by 20 points on GBPJPY. The overall risk meter stands at -0.01, indicating a neutral to slightly risk-off sentiment.
Traders will watch how the upcoming central bank communications and economic releases clarify market sentiment following the recent US data surprises.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | USDJPY +2.16%, US30 -1.62%, NZDUSD -1.55% |
| Currency strength, 24h | CHF strongest at +0.34%, JPY weakest at -0.69% |
| Risk meter | -0.01 (balanced) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 11:30 UTC | BRL | BCB Focus Market Report | Medium | – |
| Mon 15:00 UTC | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | Medium | – |
| Mon 15:05 UTC | CAD | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks | Medium | – |
| Mon 21:00 UTC | NZD | Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence | Medium | 84.8 |
| Tue 03:10 UTC | AUD | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | High | – |
| Wed 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | High | – |
| Thu 01:30 UTC | AUD | Australia Employment Change | High | 20.9K |
| Thu 01:30 UTC | AUD | Unemployment Rate | High | 4.5% |
| Thu 07:30 UTC | CHF | SNB Policy Rate | High | – |
| Thu 08:00 UTC | CHF | SNB Press Conference | High | – |
| Thu 08:00 UTC | CHF | SNB Interest Rate Decision | High | 0.00% |
| Thu 08:30 UTC | NOK | Norges Bank Press Conference | High | – |
| Thu 08:30 UTC | CHF | SNB News Conference | High | – |
| Fri 09:15 UTC | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | High | – |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.