UK CPI Preview: Inflation expected to cool slightly
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index year-over-year is scheduled for release on 2026-07-22 at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 2.7%, a slight decrease from the previous month’s 2.8%. This high-impact release is closely watched by traders for insights into inflationary pressures within the UK economy, which can influence expectations for Bank of England monetary policy decisions.
Historically, UK CPI releases have generated notable price action across GBP pairs. For example, EURGBP has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips over 138 releases since 2015. GBPAUD has shown a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter events moving 36+ pips over 143 releases. GBPUSD has typically moved a median of 14 pips in the hour following the release, with top-quarter events seeing 26+ pips over 143 releases. The direction reliability on GBPUSD has been 58% in a live sample.
Recent releases have shown varied market reactions. The previous print on June 17, 2026, came in at 2.8%, leading to a -14 pips move in GBPUSD over one hour. In May 2026, an actual of 2.8% against a forecast of 3.8% resulted in a -5.0 pips move for GBPUSD. The April 2026 release, also at 2.8%, saw a -6.5 pips move in GBPUSD.