UK CPI y/y preview: Consensus points to acceleration
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index year over year will be released on 2026-09-16 at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 3.1%, which would represent an acceleration from the previous month’s 2.9%. This high-impact economic indicator is closely watched for its implications on monetary policy and inflationary pressures within the UK economy.
Historically, this release has driven notable price action across GBP pairs. After past releases, EURGBP has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips. GBPAUD has experienced a median move of 20 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 35+ pips. GBPCAD’s median move is 20 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 37+ pips. GBPCHF typically sees a median move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. GBPJPY has a median 1-hour move of 17 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 32+ pips. GBPNZD has a median move of 19 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 44+ pips. For GBPUSD, the median 1-hour move is 14 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 26+ pips. The direction reliability for GBPUSD after past releases stands at 59%.
Recent release history shows varied outcomes. The August 2026 actual reading was 2.9%, matching the forecast and resulting in a +7.6 pip move for GBPUSD. In July, the actual was 2.6%, slightly above the 2.5% forecast, leading to a -1.3 pip move. The June 2026 actual was 2.8%, which was followed by a -14 pip move on GBPUSD. Earlier in March 2026, an actual reading of 3.3% saw GBPUSD move +7.6 pips.