UK GDP m/m preview: Consensus points to flat growth
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The UK will release its monthly Gross Domestic Product figures on 2026-07-16 at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.0% month over month growth, an improvement from the previous reading of -0.1%. This release is rated as having a High impact, as GDP data provides a key indicator of economic health and can influence monetary policy expectations.
Historically, this release has led to significant market movements across GBP pairs. After past UK GDP releases, EURGBP has seen a median 1-hour move of 6 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 13+ pips over 94 measured events. GBPAUD has shown a median move of 17 pips, and GBPNZD a median move of 18 pips. For GBPUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 22+ pips over 96 measured events since 2015. The direction reliability for GBPUSD after these releases stands at 57%.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. The last release on June 12, 2026, saw an actual of -0.1%, matching the forecast, with GBPUSD moving +11 pips in the hour following. Prior to that, May 2026 data came in at 0.3%, leading to a +12 pips move. A notable move occurred in March 2026, where a 0% actual, matching forecast, resulted in a -36 pips move for GBPUSD.