Unemployment Rate 3-months (BRL) comes in at 5.3% against 5.6% consensus

The Brazilian Unemployment Rate for the three months ending in August was reported at 5.3%. This figure came in below the consensus expectation of 5.6% and was also lower than the previous reading of 5.4%. The actual print represented a -5.4% surprise relative to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, USDBRL moved -49 pips within five minutes and extended to -81 pips fifteen minutes after the data. Historically, USDBRL has shown a median one-hour move of 36 pips after similar releases. Top-quarter moves have exceeded 92 pips, based on three releases since 2015. The observed move of -81 pips within fifteen minutes is notable when compared to the historical median one-hour move. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.