US Core CPI m/m preview: Consensus holds at 0.2%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The United States is set to release its Core Consumer Price Index month over month data on July 14, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact economic indicator, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, is closely watched for insights into underlying inflation pressures. The market consensus forecasts a reading of 0.2%, matching the previous month’s figure of 0.2%. A deviation from this expectation could influence Federal Reserve policy outlooks and market sentiment regarding interest rates.
Historically, this release has often led to notable price movements in major currency pairs. After past Core CPI releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 38+ pips. These figures are based on 114 releases since 2015. Similarly, USDJPY has experienced a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with its top-quarter releases showing movements of 41+ pips, measured over 110 releases since 2015. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.
Recent Core CPI prints show varied outcomes. The June 2026 release came in at 0.2%, matching the forecast, and was followed by an 11-pip move in EURUSD. In May 2026, the actual figure was 0.4% against a 0.1% forecast. April 2026 saw a 0.2% actual, aligning with the forecast, after which EURUSD moved 20 pips. The March 2026 reading was 0.2%, also matching consensus. The February 2026 actual was 0.3% against a 0.1% forecast, and the January 2026 print was 0.2%.