US CPI m/m preview: Consensus points to a modest rise
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Consumer Price Index month over month, a key inflation gauge, is scheduled for release on 2026-08-12 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.1% increase, following the previous reading of -0.4%. This high-impact release provides insight into inflationary pressures, which are closely watched for their implications on economic stability.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 38+ pips over 127 releases since 2015. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves of 42+ pips over the same period. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter moves of 38+ pips over 123 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips over 124 releases. Direction reliability on EURUSD has been 48%.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. The previous actual reading was -0.4%, after which EURUSD moved +37 pips in one hour. Prior to that, a 0.5% actual reading resulted in an +11 pips EURUSD move, while a 0.6% actual led to a -0.9 pips move. An earlier 0.9% actual saw EURUSD move +20 pips.