US CPI m/m preview: Market expects a negative print
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index month-over-month (CPI m/m) report is scheduled for July 14, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a -0.1% reading, a notable shift from the previous month’s 0.5% increase. This high-impact release provides key insights into inflationary pressures within the US economy, and a negative print would indicate a monthly decline in consumer prices.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 21 pips, with top-quarter movements exceeding 38 pips across 114 releases since 2015. USDJPY has shown similar volatility, with a median 1-hour move of 21 pips and top-quarter moves over 41 pips across 110 releases since 2015. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent CPI m/m prints show varied outcomes. The June 10, 2026 release saw an actual of 0.5%, matching the forecast, and EURUSD moved +11 pips in the hour following. In May 2026, the actual was 0.6% against a 0.7% forecast, resulting in a -0.9 pips EURUSD move. April 2026’s actual of 0.9% significantly exceeded the 0.3% forecast, with EURUSD moving +20 pips.