US Midterms Begin With Democrats Favored to Take the House as Markets Weigh a Divided Congress
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
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| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
- Democrats favored to win House in Tuesday’s midterms
- Democrats need net 3 House seats and net 4 Senate seats
- Senate currently 53-47 Republican; Vance breaks ties
- Investors preparing for a divided Congress under Trump
US voters go to the polls on Tuesday in the 2026 midterm elections, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election, along with governor and mayoral races. Public polling shows Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low. Analysts expect Democrats to take the House, where they need a net gain of three seats to reach the 218-seat majority.
The Senate is tighter: Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Coverage has focused on the battleground races that could decide control.
A Democratic House would likely limit Trump’s legislative agenda for the final two years of his term. Market commentary frames the vote as a referendum on his policies, and investors are preparing for a changed Congress. Outcomes in the Senate and in close races remain the main uncertainty.