Unemployment Rate - ForexCracked
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Canada

Unemployment Rate CAD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 9 12:30 UTC · consensus 6.3% · previous 6.4%  

What this release is

The Unemployment Rate for Canada, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures the percentage of the total labor force that is actively seeking employment but currently without a job. This official release from statcan.gc.ca provides a key insight into the health of the Canadian labour market.

Forex traders closely monitor the Canadian Unemployment Rate because it is a significant indicator of economic strength and potential inflationary pressures. Central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, consider labor market conditions when evaluating the economy and formulating monetary policy. A sustained trend in the unemployment rate can influence expectations for future interest rate adjustments, which in turn affects the Canadian dollar’s valuation.

Upon its monthly release, market participants typically focus on the headline unemployment rate figure. Significant deviations from expectations, or notable revisions to prior period data, can lead to immediate market reactions. After past releases, the Canadian dollar has often shown volatility as traders digest the implications for economic growth and central bank policy.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
27pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
44pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
158pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD23p25p27p44p
AUDCAD15p19p18p35p
CADCHF12p14p14p25p
CADJPY16p19p20p44p
EURCAD24p28p26p53p
GBPCAD26p30p34p57p
NZDCAD14p14p18p32p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 16 of 29 cases · median +5.8p n=29 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour lower in 25 of 33 cases · median -20p n=33 live
In line within the surprise band USDCAD closed the hour lower in 25 of 46 cases · median -2.7p n=46 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 4, 20266.4%6.4%6.4%—+47p—
Aug 7, 20266.4%6.6%6.5%—-54p—
Jul 10, 20266.5%6.8%6.6%—+1.3p—
Jun 5, 20266.6%6.9%6.9%—+4.3p—
May 8, 20266.9%6.9%6.7%—+42p—
Apr 10, 20266.7%6.6%6.7%—-13p—
Mar 13, 20266.7%6.5%6.5%—+43p—
Feb 6, 20266.5%7%6.8%—-9.3p—
Jan 9, 20266.8%6.4%6.5%—+5.8p—
Dec 5, 20256.5%6.9%6.9%—-48p—
Nov 7, 20256.9%7%7.1%—-30p—
Oct 10, 20257.1%7.2%7.1%—-18p—
Sep 5, 20257.1%7%6.9%—+21p—
Aug 8, 20256.9%7%6.9%—+4.4p—
Jul 11, 20256.9%7.1%7%—-5.0p—
Jun 6, 20257%6.9%6.9%—+12p—
May 9, 20256.9%6.6%6.7%—+11p—
Apr 4, 20256.7%6.6%6.6%—+26p—
Mar 7, 20256.6%6.7%6.6%—+17p—
Feb 7, 20256.6%6.5%6.7%—-33p—
Jan 10, 20256.7%7.1%6.8%—-33p—
Dec 6, 20246.8%6.5%6.5%—+36p—
Nov 8, 20246.5%6.3%6.5%—+0.1p—
Oct 11, 20246.5%6.5%6.6%—-24p—

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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