BoC Overnight Rate - ForexCracked
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Canada · Rates

BoC Overnight Rate CAD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Oct 28 13:45 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 2.25%  

What this release is

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Overnight Rate is the central bank’s primary policy interest rate. It represents the target for the overnight lending rate between major financial institutions in Canada. The BoC’s Governing Council sets this rate, which influences other short-term interest rates across the Canadian financial system.

Forex traders closely monitor the BoC Overnight Rate because changes directly affect the attractiveness of holding Canadian dollar assets. A higher rate can increase the yield on CAD denominated investments, potentially drawing capital inflows, while a lower rate can reduce it. This mechanism directly influences the Canadian dollar’s valuation in foreign exchange markets, as the BoC uses this rate to manage inflation and economic growth.

The market’s reaction to the BoC Overnight Rate announcement typically centers on the headline decision. Any deviation from widely held expectations, or significant shifts in the accompanying policy statement, can lead to notable price adjustments. The release has a High typical impact rating, reflecting the market’s close attention to this key economic indicator. After past releases, market participants have often adjusted their positions rapidly based on the outcome.

How hard it hits, measured

83 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
37pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
51pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
176pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD26p27p37p51p
AUDCAD16p16p20p38p
CADCHF12p11p17p28p
CADJPY19p17p25p38p
EURCAD23p30p37p62p
GBPCAD32p32p38p77p
NZDCAD16p14p18p35p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=3 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 2, 20262%2.25%2.25%-38p
Jul 15, 20262%2.25%2.25%-5.5p
Jun 10, 20262%2.25%+15p
Apr 29, 20262%2.25%-4.3p
Mar 18, 20262%2.25%-16p
Jan 28, 20262%2.25%+5.6p
Dec 10, 20252%2.25%+5.5p
Oct 29, 20252.25%2.5%-17p
Sep 17, 20252.5%2.75%-3.6p
Jul 30, 20252%2.75%+3.4p
Jun 4, 20252%2.75%-34p
Apr 16, 20252%2.75%-31p
Mar 12, 20252%3%-7.4p
Jan 29, 20253%3.25%-1.5p
Dec 11, 20243.25%3.75%-37p
Oct 23, 20243.75%4.25%+19p
Sep 4, 20244.25%4.5%-47p
Jul 24, 20244.5%4.75%+21p
Jun 5, 20244.75%5%+39p
Apr 10, 20245%5%-4.8p
Mar 6, 20245%5%-47p
Jan 24, 20245%5%+40p
Dec 6, 20235%5%-5.1p
Oct 25, 20235%5%+13p

Showing the latest 24 of 83 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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