Canada CPI m/m - ForexCracked
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Canada · Inflation

Canada CPI m/m CAD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 19 12:30 UTC · consensus -0.1% · previous -0.1%  

What this release is

Canada CPI m/m measures the monthly percentage change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services in Canada. This report is published by Statistics Canada. It provides a key indicator of inflationary pressures experienced by consumers nationwide.

Forex traders closely monitor Canadian CPI data because it directly influences the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained inflation above or below the central bank’s target can prompt adjustments to interest rates. Higher interest rates typically make the Canadian dollar more attractive to investors, while lower rates can reduce its appeal. This makes the release a High impact event for the Canadian dollar.

Upon release, market attention typically focuses on the headline month over month figure. Traders also examine core inflation measures, which exclude volatile items, for a clearer picture of underlying price trends. Significant deviations from expectations often lead to immediate volatility in CAD currency pairs. While revisions to previous months’ data are sometimes included, the initial headline figure usually drives the primary market reaction.

How hard it hits, measured

141 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
17pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
33pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
119pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD14p17p17p33p
AUDCAD10p9.8p13p23p
CADCHF7.2p8.6p9.9p19p
CADJPY11p14p15p28p
EURCAD17p17p23p40p
GBPCAD20p21p24p46p
NZDCAD9.7p10p13p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 28 of 52 cases · median +3.3p n=52 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 27 of 46 cases · median +3.5p n=46 live
In line within the surprise band USDCAD closed the hour lower in 7 of 11 cases · median -7.7p n=11 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 14, 2026-0.1%0%0.5%—+18p—
Aug 17, 20260.5%0%-0.4%—-2.4p—
Jul 20, 2026-0.4%0.6%1%—+4.1p—
Jun 22, 20261%0.2%0.4%—+22p—
May 19, 20260.4%0.8%0.9%—+13p—
Apr 20, 20260.9%0.5%0.5%—-11p—
Mar 16, 20260.5%0.4%0%—-3.9p—
Feb 17, 20260%0%-0.2%—+19p—
Jan 19, 2026-0.2%-0.6%0.1%—-4.8p—
Dec 15, 20250.1%0.3%0.2%—+11p—
Nov 17, 20250.2%0%0.1%—+9.4p—
Oct 21, 20250.1%-0.5%-0.1%—-8.3p—
Sep 16, 2025-0.1%0.3%0.3%—-12p—
Aug 19, 20250.3%0.2%0.1%—+31p—
Jul 15, 20250.1%0.1%0.6%—-15p—
Jun 24, 20250.6%0.4%-0.1%—-10p—
May 20, 2025-0.1%0.4%0.3%—-29p—
Apr 15, 20250.3%0.6%1.1%—-2.9p—
Mar 18, 20251.1%0.2%0.1%—-13p—
Feb 18, 20250.1%0.1%-0.4%—-8.1p—
Jan 21, 2025-0.4%-0.5%0%—-7.4p—
Dec 17, 20240%0.1%0.4%—-4.6p—
Nov 19, 20240.4%-0.1%-0.4%—-29p—
Oct 15, 2024-0.4%0.1%-0.2%—-8.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 141 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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