Canada CPI m/m preview: Consensus points to rebound from previous negative reading
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Consumer Price Index month over month report is scheduled for release on August 17, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.4% increase, a notable shift from the previous reading of -0.4%. As a high impact release, this inflation data is closely watched for its implications on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions.
Historically, this release has often led to significant movements in CAD pairs. For USDCAD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 17 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 34+ pips. Other pairs also show notable volatility. AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, while EURCAD’s median move is 23 pips. GBPCAD has a median move of 24 pips. Direction reliability on USDCAD has been 50% across live samples.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The prior report on July 20, 2026, saw an actual reading of -0.4% against a forecast of 0.6%, resulting in a modest USDCAD 1-hour move of +4.1 pips. In contrast, the June 22, 2026, release, with an actual 1% against a 0.2% forecast, led to a +22 pips move for USDCAD. The May 19, 2026, release, with an actual 0.4% versus a 0.8% forecast, saw USDCAD move +13 pips.