Canada CPI m/m preview: Market expects contraction after previous 0.5% gain
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Consumer Price Index month over month data is scheduled for release on September 14, 2026 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus forecasts a reading of -0.1%, a notable shift from the previous month’s 0.5% increase. This release is rated as having a high impact on the Canadian Dollar. A contraction in monthly CPI, as suggested by the consensus, would mark a deceleration from the prior period’s positive growth.
Historically, this release has generated significant volatility across CAD pairs. For USDCAD, the median 1-hour price move after past releases has been 16 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 33+ pips, measured over 142 releases since 2015. Direction reliability for USDCAD has been 50%. Other pairs also experience notable movement. EURCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 40+ pips. GBPCAD typically sees a median 24 pips move, with top-quarter events moving 46+ pips. CADJPY has a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 28+ pips.
Recent CPI prints show varied outcomes. In August 2026, the actual figure was 0.5% against a 0% forecast, with USDCAD moving -2.4 pips. July 2026 saw an actual of -0.4% versus a 0.6% forecast, leading to a +4.1 pips move for USDCAD. In June 2026, the actual was 1% against a 0.2% forecast, resulting in a +22 pips USDCAD move.