Overnight Rate (CAD) preview: Consensus expects rate hold

The Bank of Canada is set to announce its latest Overnight Rate decision on July 15 at 13:45 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the rate will remain unchanged at 2.25%, matching the previous reading. This release is rated as high impact for the Canadian Dollar, as any deviation from expectations or significant shifts in the accompanying statement could influence market sentiment and the currency’s valuation. Traders will be watching closely for any forward guidance from the central bank.

Historically, this event has generated notable volatility across CAD crosses. Our data, spanning 80 to 81 releases since 2015, shows that AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 20 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 40+ pips. CADCHF typically moves a median of 17 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 29+ pips. CADJPY has a median 1-hour move of 25 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing 38+ pips. For EURCAD, the median 1-hour move is 37 pips, and top-quarter moves are 62+ pips. GBPCAD has a median 1-hour move of 38 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 79+ pips. NZDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 19 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 35+ pips. USDCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 37 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 52+ pips.

Recent releases have shown varied reactions in USDCAD. Following the June 10, 2026 release, where the actual rate was 2%, USDCAD moved +15 pips in one hour. The April 29, 2026 release, also at 2%, saw a –4.3 pips move. In March 2026, a 2% actual rate led to a –16 pips move. The January 2026 release, at 2%, resulted in a +5.6 pips move, and the December 2025 release, also at 2%, saw a +5.5 pips move. The October 2025 release, which had an actual rate of 2.25%, saw USDCAD move –17 pips.