BoC Interest Rate Decision preview: Consensus expects rates to hold at 2.25%

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is scheduled to announce its latest Interest Rate Decision on September 2, 2026, at 13:45 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the central bank will maintain its key interest rate at 2.25%. This would match the previous reading of 2.25%. Given the potential for shifts in monetary policy, this event carries a high impact rating for the Canadian dollar.

Historically, BoC rate decisions have led to notable volatility across CAD pairs. After past releases, AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 20 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 40 pips. CADCHF has experienced a median 17-pip move, with top-quarter moves over 28 pips. CADJPY typically sees a median 25-pip move, with top-quarter moves above 38 pips. For EURCAD, the median 1-hour move is 37 pips, and top-quarter moves have surpassed 62 pips. GBPCAD has shown a median 38-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving over 79 pips. NZDCAD has a median 18-pip move, and top-quarter moves have exceeded 35 pips. USDCAD has registered a median 1-hour move of 37 pips, with top-quarter releases moving more than 51 pips. These statistics are measured over 81 to 82 releases since 2015.

Recent BoC rate decisions have shown varying immediate reactions in USDCAD. The July 15, 2026 release, which saw an actual rate of 2% against a forecast of 2.25%, resulted in a -5.5 pip 1-hour move for USDCAD. Prior to that, the June 10, 2026 release, with an actual rate of 2%, saw USDCAD move +15 pips. The April 29, 2026 release, also at 2%, led to a -4.3 pip move.