CAD Unemployment Rate preview: Expected to rise to 6.5%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
The Canadian Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on October 9, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the rate will increase to 6.5%, up from the previous reading of 6.4%. This release is rated as having a High impact on the market, as changes in employment figures are closely watched by the Bank of Canada for monetary policy considerations.
Historically, the Canadian Unemployment Rate release has generated notable volatility. USDCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 27 pips following the release, with top-quarter events moving 44+ pips. GBPCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 34 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 57+ pips. EURCAD typically observes a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter moves over 53+ pips. Other CAD crosses also react, with CADJPY seeing a median 1-hour move of 20 pips and AUDCAD a median 1-hour move of 18 pips.
Recent releases have shown varied market reactions. The September 2026 report saw the actual rate match the forecast at 6.4%, with USDCAD moving +47 pips in the hour following. In August 2026, the actual 6.4% came in below the 6.6% forecast, leading to a -54 pips move for USDCAD. The July 2026 release, with an actual 6.5% against a 6.8% forecast, resulted in a smaller +1.3 pips move for USDCAD.