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MXN

CPI y/y MXN

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Nov 9 12:00 UTC · consensus 3.43% · previous 3.45%  

What this release is

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year for Mexico measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services over the past twelve months. This key inflation indicator, which falls under the prices sector, is published monthly by Mexico’s national statistics office, INEGI, whose official source website is en.www.inegi.org.mx.

Forex traders closely monitor the CPI y/y data because it is a primary input for the central bank’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained changes in inflation can influence the central bank’s stance on interest rates. Shifts in interest rate expectations can in turn affect the attractiveness of the Mexican Peso, MXN, relative to other currencies.

After past releases, market attention often focuses on the headline year-over-year figure. While the initial reading typically drives immediate reactions, any subsequent revisions to prior data can also influence market sentiment. Traders assess this monthly release for signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

How hard it hits, measured

5 releases · own feed
Typical USDMXN move
55pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
143pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDMXN51p62p55p143p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDMXN 1h
Oct 8, 20263.45%3.64%3.26%———
Sep 9, 20263.26%3.97%3.12%———
Aug 7, 20263.12%4.02%3.37%———
Jul 9, 20263.37%4%3.94%———
Jun 9, 20263.94%3.47%4.45%———
May 7, 20264.45%5.25%4.59%———
Apr 9, 20264.59%4.8%4.02%———
Mar 9, 20264.02%3.32%3.79%———
Feb 9, 20263.79%3.86%3.69%———
Jan 8, 20263.69%3.96%3.8%———
Dec 9, 20253.8%3.29%3.57%———
Nov 7, 20253.57%3.87%3.76%———
Oct 9, 20253.76%4.2%3.57%———
Sep 9, 20253.57%3.53%3.51%———
Aug 7, 20253.51%3.89%4.32%———
Jul 9, 20254.32%4.43%4.42%———
Jun 9, 20254.42%3.99%3.93%———
May 8, 20253.93%3.43%3.8%———
Apr 9, 20253.8%3.53%3.77%———
Mar 7, 20253.77%3.77%3.59%———
Feb 7, 20253.59%3.96%4.21%———
Jan 9, 20254.21%4.04%4.55%———
Dec 9, 20244.55%4.15%4.76%———
Nov 7, 20244.76%4.21%4.58%———

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDMXN move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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