CPI y/y (MXN) comes in at 3.26% against 3.97% consensus

Mexico’s Consumer Price Index year over year came in at 3.26%, significantly below the consensus expectation of 3.97%. This outcome represents a -17.9% surprise against the forecast, indicating a cooler inflation print than anticipated by analysts. The previous reading for the series was 3.12%.

The USDMXN pair saw an initial move of +7.0 pips five minutes after the release, followed by a trade of -12 pips fifteen minutes after the data became public. Historically, the median one-hour move for USDMXN after similar economic releases has been 55 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 249 pips or more. The observed price action in the immediate aftermath of this release is small relative to these historical movements.