New Zealand CPI q/q - ForexCracked
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New Zealand · Inflation

New Zealand CPI q/q NZD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Oct 21 21:45 UTC · consensus 1.4% · previous 1.5%  

What this release is

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index, CPI, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Statistics New Zealand publishes this data quarterly. It reflects the cost of living and purchasing power within the New Zealand economy, covering various sectors from food to transportation.

Forex traders monitor the New Zealand CPI as a key indicator of inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, considers inflation a primary factor in its monetary policy decisions. Sustained increases in CPI can lead the RBNZ to consider raising interest rates to control inflation, which can make the New Zealand Dollar, NZD, more attractive to investors. Conversely, low or falling inflation might prompt the RBNZ to consider lower rates.

Market participants typically focus on the headline quarterly percentage change. Revisions to previous quarters are also noted, though they usually have less impact than the initial release. The market reaction often occurs immediately upon publication, as the data provides direct insight into inflationary pressures and potential RBNZ policy shifts.

How hard it hits, measured

41 releases · own feed
Typical NZDUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
25pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
66pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
NZDUSD13p14p12p25p
AUDNZD19p22p19p40p
EURNZD33p40p38p69p
GBPNZD33p35p41p72p
NZDCAD15p12p15p32p
NZDCHF12p11p13p28p
NZDJPY17p16p21p34p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus NZDUSD closed the hour higher in 9 of 15 cases · median +4.9p n=15 live
Miss below consensus NZDUSD closed the hour higher in 8 of 12 cases · median +6.1p n=12 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toNZDUSD 1h
Jul 20, 20261.5%0.6%0.9%—+14pStory
Apr 20, 20260.9%0.9%0.6%—+18p—
Jan 22, 20260.6%0.9%1%—+4.4p—
Oct 19, 20251%0.8%0.5%—+5.6p—
Jul 20, 20250.5%0.3%0.9%—-14p—
Apr 16, 20250.9%0.7%0.5%—+4.9p—
Jan 21, 20250.5%0.5%0.6%—-2.6p—
Oct 15, 20240.6%1.2%0.4%—-23p—
Jul 16, 20240.4%0.5%0.6%—+15p—
Apr 16, 20240.6%1.1%0.5%—+6.4p—
Jan 23, 20240.5%1.4%1.8%—+12p—
Oct 16, 20231.8%1%1.1%—-22p—
Jul 18, 20231.1%1.4%1.2%—+6.1p—
Apr 19, 20231.2%2%1.4%—-43p—
Jan 24, 20231.4%2.4%2.2%—-5.5p—
Oct 17, 20222.2%1.7%1.7%—+6.6p—
Jul 17, 20221.7%1.7%1.8%—+35p—
Apr 20, 20221.8%1.7%1.4%—-25p—
Jan 26, 20221.4%2.2%2.2%—-2.3p—
Oct 17, 20212.2%0.7%1.3%—+25p—
Jul 15, 20211.3%0.6%0.8%—-0.5p—
Apr 20, 20210.8%0.6%0.5%—-5.7p—
Jan 21, 20210.5%0.4%0.7%—+12p—
Oct 22, 20200.7%0.2%-0.5%—+11p—

Showing the latest 24 of 41 tracked releases.

Reaction = NZDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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