New Zealand CPI q/q preview: Consensus expects higher inflation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| NZDUSD | — | — |
New Zealand’s second quarter Consumer Price Index, CPI q/q, is scheduled for release. Market consensus forecasts a reading of 1.5%, a notable increase from the previous quarter’s 0.9%. This release carries a High impact rating, and a print significantly different from expectations could influence market perceptions regarding future monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Historically, this economic indicator has been associated with significant price movements across NZD pairs. On NZDUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases was 12 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 27+ pips. The direction reliability on NZDUSD is 46%. Other pairs also show substantial volatility. EURNZD and GBPNZD have recorded median 1-hour moves of 37 pips and 38 pips respectively, with top-quarter releases moving 72+ pips and 73+ pips. AUDNZD saw a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips. NZDCAD, NZDCHF, and NZDJPY also experienced median 1-hour moves of 14 pips, 13 pips, and 19 pips respectively.
Recent CPI releases have shown varied outcomes. The April 2026 release came in at 0.9%, matching the forecast, and NZDUSD moved +18 pips in the hour following. In January 2026, the actual print of 0.6% missed the 0.9% forecast, leading to an NZDUSD 1-hour move of +4.4 pips. The October 2025 release saw a 1% actual reading against a 0.8% forecast, with NZDUSD moving +5.6 pips. The July 2025 print of 0.5% exceeded its 0.3% forecast, but NZDUSD moved -14 pips.