RBNZ Official Cash Rate - ForexCracked
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New Zealand · Rates

RBNZ Official Cash Rate NZD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Oct 28 01:00 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 2.75%  

What this release is

The Official Cash Rate, or OCR, is the benchmark interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ. It represents the cost of overnight borrowing between commercial banks in New Zealand. The RBNZ uses the OCR as its primary tool to influence inflation and support maximum sustainable employment within the New Zealand economy.

Forex traders closely monitor the OCR because it directly impacts the attractiveness of holding New Zealand Dollar denominated assets. A higher OCR generally signals a tighter monetary policy stance, potentially increasing the yield on NZD assets and attracting capital inflows. Conversely, a lower OCR suggests an accommodative policy, which can reduce the NZD’s appeal. Changes to the OCR or the RBNZ’s forward guidance on its future path can significantly influence the NZD’s valuation against other currencies.

The market’s reaction to the RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision is typically swift and pronounced, reflecting its High impact rating. The headline OCR figure itself is the primary focus. However, the accompanying monetary policy statement and any press conference by the RBNZ Governor are also critical. Traders analyze these communications for clues regarding the RBNZ’s future policy intentions, including any hints about potential rate hikes or cuts. Unexpected changes to the OCR or shifts in the RBNZ’s outlook often lead to immediate and substantial volatility for the New Zealand Dollar.

How hard it hits, measured

70 releases · own feed
Typical NZDUSD move
29pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
43pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
111pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
NZDUSD29p27p29p43p
AUDNZD44p41p43p62p
EURNZD69p75p72p122p
GBPNZD87p87p90p136p
NZDCAD38p33p37p53p
NZDCHF26p25p27p42p
NZDJPY30p32p36p56p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toNZDUSD 1h
Sep 2, 20262.75%2.75%2.50%-37p
Jul 8, 20262.5%2.50%2.25%+13p
May 27, 20262.25%2.25%+29p
Apr 8, 20262.25%2.25%+4.7p
Feb 18, 20262.25%2.25%-23p
Nov 26, 20252.25%2.5%+41p
Oct 8, 20252.5%3%-44p
Aug 20, 20253%3.25%-56p
Jul 9, 20253.25%3.25%-10p
May 28, 20253.25%3.5%+21p
Apr 9, 20253.5%3.75%-0.9p
Feb 19, 20253.75%4.25%-4.2p
Nov 27, 20244.25%4.75%+42p
Oct 8, 20244.75%5.25%5.25%-18p
Aug 14, 20245.25%5.5%5.5%-41p
Jul 10, 20245.5%5.5%-47p
May 22, 20245.5%5.5%5.5%+38p
Apr 10, 20245.5%5.5%+13p
Feb 28, 20245.5%5.5%-51p
Nov 29, 20235.5%5.5%+44p
Oct 4, 20235.5%5.5%-37p
Aug 16, 20235.5%5.5%+19p
Jul 12, 20235.5%5.5%+15p
May 24, 20235.5%5.25%-69p

Showing the latest 24 of 71 tracked releases.

Reaction = NZDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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