RBNZ Interest Rate Decision preview: Consensus expects a hike
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| NZDUSD | — | — |
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its latest interest rate decision on September 2, 2026, at 02:00 UTC. Market consensus is for the Official Cash Rate to increase to 2.75%, up from the previous reading of 2.50%. This highly-rated event is closely watched by traders, as changes in interest rates directly influence the attractiveness of the New Zealand Dollar.
Historically, RBNZ rate decisions have generated significant volatility across NZD pairs. Our data, spanning 67-69 releases since 2015, shows a median 1-hour move of 90 pips for GBPNZD, with top-quarter releases moving 132+ pips. EURNZD has seen a median 1-hour move of 67 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 120 pips. AUDNZD typically moves 42 pips in the hour following the release, with larger moves of 62+ pips in the top quarter. NZDUSD has a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 44+ pips. Other pairs like NZDCAD, NZDJPY, and NZDCHF have median 1-hour moves of 36 pips, 36 pips, and 28 pips respectively.
Recent RBNZ decisions have shown varied market reactions. The July 2026 decision, where the actual rate was 2.5% matching the forecast, saw NZDUSD move +13 pips in the hour after. In May 2026, a 2.25% actual rate led to a +29 pips move for NZDUSD. The October 2025 decision, with an actual rate of 2.5%, resulted in a -44 pips move for NZDUSD.