RBA Cash Rate - ForexCracked
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Australia · Rates

RBA Cash Rate AUD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 29 04:30 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 4.35%  

What this release is

The RBA Cash Rate is the target interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia for overnight lending between commercial banks. It represents the primary tool through which the RBA implements its monetary policy objectives. This rate influences the broader cost of borrowing and lending across the Australian economy.

Forex traders closely monitor the RBA Cash Rate because it directly impacts the attractiveness of Australian dollar denominated assets. A higher cash rate can lead to increased demand for the Australian dollar as investors seek better returns, while a lower rate may reduce its appeal. This release provides insight into the RBA’s current assessment of economic conditions and its policy direction, making its typical impact rating High.

Market participants typically focus on the announced cash rate decision itself, as this is a direct policy setting rather than a data point subject to revision. The market often processes this information immediately upon release. After past announcements, the Australian dollar has frequently experienced significant price movements against other major currencies, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations.

How hard it hits, measured

105 releases · own feed
Typical AUDUSD move
15pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
24pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
77pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
AUDUSD8.9p12p15p24p
AUDCAD10p13p17p30p
AUDCHF8.3p11p14p23p
AUDJPY12p15p17p33p
AUDNZD10p14p18p35p
EURAUD21p23p34p57p
GBPAUD22p25p36p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=3 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toAUDUSD 1h
Aug 11, 20264.35%4.35%4.35%-17p
Jun 16, 20264.35%4.35%-0.7p
May 5, 20264.35%4.1%-14p
Mar 17, 20264.1%3.85%+29p
Feb 3, 20263.85%3.6%-9.6p
Dec 9, 20253.6%3.6%+15p
Nov 4, 20253.6%3.6%-3.9p
Sep 30, 20253.6%3.6%+20p
Aug 12, 20253.6%3.85%-13p
Jul 8, 20253.85%3.85%+30p
May 20, 20253.85%3.85%-15p
May 20, 20253.85%4.1%-5.9p
Apr 1, 20254.1%4.1%+1.1p
Feb 18, 20254.1%4.35%-2.1p
Dec 10, 20244.35%4.35%-14p
Nov 5, 20244.35%4.35%+5.8p
Sep 24, 20244.35%4.35%-53p
Aug 6, 20244.35%4.35%+17p
Jun 18, 20244.35%4.35%+13p
May 7, 20244.35%4.35%-24p
Mar 19, 20244.35%4.35%-24p
Feb 6, 20244.35%4.35%+24p
Dec 5, 20234.35%4.35%-23p
Nov 7, 20234.35%4.1%-35p

Showing the latest 24 of 105 tracked releases.

Reaction = AUDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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