RBA Interest Rate Decision preview: Consensus holds at 4.35%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| AUDUSD | — | — |
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on August 11, 2026, at 04:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the cash rate will remain unchanged at 4.35%, matching the previous reading. This high-impact release is closely watched by traders, as any deviation from the expected hold, or significant shifts in the accompanying statement, could prompt notable market movements for the Australian dollar.
Historically, RBA Interest Rate Decisions have often led to significant price action across AUD pairs. Our data, spanning over 100 releases since 2015, shows that AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 17 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 31+ pips. AUDCHF typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, with top-quarter events reaching 23+ pips. For AUDJPY, the median 1-hour move is 17 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 33+ pips. AUDNZD has registered a median 1-hour move of 18 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 35+ pips. AUDUSD has a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 25+ pips. Cross pairs also show considerable volatility, with EURAUD recording a median 1-hour move of 34 pips and top-quarter moves of 58+ pips, while GBPAUD has seen a median 1-hour move of 36 pips and top-quarter releases moving 66+ pips.
Recent RBA decisions have shown varied market reactions. The June 16, 2026, release, with an actual rate of 4.35%, saw AUDUSD move -0.7 pips in the hour following. The May 05, 2026, decision, also at 4.35%, resulted in an AUDUSD 1-hour move of -14 pips. Earlier, the March 17, 2026, rate hike to 4.1% was followed by an AUDUSD move of +29 pips. The February 03, 2026, hike to 3.85% saw AUDUSD move -9.6 pips, and the December 09, 2025, hike to 3.6% led to a +15 pips move for AUDUSD.