Australia Monthly CPI Indicator y/y - ForexCracked
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Australia · Inflation

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator y/y AUD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 01:30 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

This report tracks the percentage change in the cost of a basket of consumer goods and services in Australia compared to the same month a year earlier. It serves as an early indicator of inflation trends. The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes this data.

Forex traders monitor this indicator closely because inflation is a primary consideration for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. Sustained changes in consumer prices can influence the RBA’s decisions on interest rates. Shifts in Australian interest rate expectations often impact the Australian Dollar’s valuation against other currencies.

The market typically assigns a High impact rating to this release. Traders generally focus on the headline year over year figure upon its initial publication. While revisions to prior data can occur, the immediate market reaction often centers on the first reported numbers. The release provides an early monthly insight into Australian inflation trends.

How hard it hits, measured

42 releases · own feed
Typical AUDUSD move
17pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
26pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
AUDUSD16p16p17p26p
AUDCAD19p20p23p32p
AUDCHF14p13p16p23p
AUDJPY19p20p20p31p
AUDNZD21p20p22p37p
EURAUD36p41p40p56p
GBPAUD40p45p46p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus AUDUSD closed the hour higher in 13 of 20 cases · median +5.1p n=20 live
Miss below consensus AUDUSD closed the hour lower in 7 of 11 cases · median -7.3p n=11 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toAUDUSD 1h
Jul 29, 20263.9%5.1%4.1%—-17p—
Apr 29, 20264.1%4.5%3.6%3.6%-7.3p—
Jan 28, 20263.6%3.5%3.2%—-0.6p—
Oct 29, 20253.2%3.2%2.1%—+13p—
Jul 30, 20252.1%2.3%2.4%—-3.5p—
Apr 30, 20252.4%2.9%2.4%—+14p—
Jan 29, 20252.4%1.8%2.8%—-22p—
Oct 30, 20242.8%2.8%3.8%—+11p—
Jul 31, 20243.8%2.7%3.6%—-38p—
Apr 24, 20243.6%3.4%4.1%—+26p—
Jan 31, 20244.1%4.3%5.4%—-17p—
Oct 25, 20235.4%5.1%6%—+36p—
Jul 26, 20236%6%7%—-21p—
Apr 26, 20237%7.1%7.8%—-7.6p—
Jan 25, 20237.8%7.2%7.3%—+46p—
Oct 26, 20227.3%6.6%6.1%—+3.6p—
Jul 27, 20226.1%4.4%5.1%—-25p—
Apr 27, 20225.1%2%3.5%—+0.1p—
Jan 25, 20223.5%2.1%3%—+6.5p—
Oct 27, 20213%2.7%3.8%—+17p—
Jul 28, 20213.8%1.3%1.1%—-13p—
Apr 28, 20211.1%1.3%0.9%—-17p—
Jan 27, 20210.9%0.2%0.7%—+0.8p—
Oct 28, 20200.7%-0.8%-0.3%—+8.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 41 tracked releases.

Reaction = AUDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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