Australia Monthly CPI Indicator y/y preview: Consensus points to inflation rise

Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator year over year is set for release on September 30 at 01:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a reading of 4.1%, which would mark an increase from the previous figure of 3.5%. This high impact release provides a timely gauge of inflationary pressures within the Australian economy, a key factor influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions. A significant deviation from expectations could prompt market re-evaluations of future interest rate trajectories.

Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across AUD pairs. Based on 42 past releases since 2015, AUDUSD has seen a median 1-hour movement of 17 pips, with top-quarter movements exceeding 26 pips. EURAUD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 40 pips, with top-quarter moves over 56 pips. GBPAUD has shown even larger reactions, with a median 1-hour move of 46 pips and top-quarter moves above 66 pips. Other AUD crosses also demonstrate significant activity, including AUDCAD with a median move of 23 pips, AUDCHF with 16 pips, AUDJPY with 20 pips, and AUDNZD with 22 pips. The direction reliability for AUDUSD after these releases stands at 66%.

Recent prints have shown varied reactions. The July 2026 release, with an actual 3.9% against a 5.1% forecast, saw AUDUSD move –17 pips. In April 2026, an actual 4.1% versus a 4.5% forecast resulted in a –7.3 pips move for AUDUSD. The January 2026 print, actual 3.6% against a 3.5% forecast, led to a minimal –0.6 pips AUDUSD move.