AUD CPI y/y preview: Consensus points to an acceleration

Australia’s Consumer Price Index year over year data is scheduled for release on October 28 at 00:30 UTC. This high impact event will show if inflationary pressures are continuing to build in the Australian economy. The market consensus anticipates a reading of 4.2%, an increase from the previous quarter’s 4.0%. A higher print than the previous figure would indicate accelerating inflation, a key factor for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions.

Historically, this release has often led to notable movements across AUD pairs. On AUDUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 17 pips, with top-quarter movements exceeding 27+ pips. AUDCAD has seen median 1-hour moves of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 32+ pips. For AUDJPY, the median 1-hour move was 20 pips, with top-quarter moves over 32+ pips. Cross pairs involving AUD also show significant reactions. EURAUD has experienced median 1-hour moves of 41 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 58+ pips. Similarly, GBPAUD has shown median 1-hour moves of 46 pips, with top-quarter events moving 67+ pips. The direction reliability for AUDUSD after these releases stands at 66% based on our live sample.

Recent releases of the AUD CPI y/y have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The July 2026 release came in at 3.9% against a 5.1% forecast, with AUDUSD moving -17 pips in the hour after. In April 2026, the actual figure was 4.1% compared to a 4.5% forecast, leading to a -7.3 pips move on AUDUSD. The January 2026 print was 3.6% against a 3.5% forecast, resulting in a -0.6 pips move.