Adjusted Trade Balance (JPY) comes in at -840.6B against -1214.3B consensus

Japan’s Adjusted Trade Balance for September reported a deficit of -840.6B JPY. This figure came in significantly narrower than the consensus expectation of -1214.3B JPY, representing a 30.8% surprise relative to analyst forecasts. The previous month’s reading was a deficit of -686B JPY.

Following the release, JPY crosses generally moved lower against their counterparts over the initial 15 minutes. USDJPY declined by -9.1 pips, while EURJPY fell -11 pips. GBPJPY saw a larger move, dropping -17 pips. AUDJPY was down -10 pips, CADJPY -9.8 pips, CHFJPY -8.9 pips, and NZDJPY -11 pips. For context, the 15-minute moves for most pairs, such as USDJPY’s -9.1 pips, are near or slightly above their historical median 1-hour moves, which for USDJPY is 8 pips. GBPJPY’s -17 pips move is above its median 1-hour move of 8 pips and also above its top-quarter release threshold of 13+ pips.