Adjusted Trade Balance - ForexCracked
Japan

Adjusted Trade Balance JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Nov 17 23:50 UTC · consensus -1025.6B · previous -704B  

What this release is

The Adjusted Trade Balance for Japan measures the difference in value between the nation’s exports and imports of goods. This monthly release is published by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, accessible via customs.go.jp, and provides key insights into the country’s trade sector.

Forex traders monitor this report because a trade surplus indicates net foreign demand for the Japanese Yen to purchase Japanese goods, which can support the currency. Conversely, a trade deficit suggests net Yen selling to acquire foreign goods, potentially weakening the Yen. The trade balance is also a significant component of a nation’s gross domestic product, reflecting overall economic health.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline trade balance figure. Revisions to prior months’ data can also influence market reactions. This monthly report generally carries a medium impact rating on the Japanese Yen, reflecting its importance as an indicator of Japan’s external economic position.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.6p5.2p7.3p11p
AUDJPY1.9p3.7p7.6p12p
CADJPY1.4p3.4p4.4p8.2p
CHFJPY1.8p4.1p5.3p10p
EURJPY1.7p4.6p5.6p14p
GBPJPY2.5p5.6p7.6p13p
NZDJPY1.8p4.0p6.6p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 33 of 57 cases · median +2.6p n=57 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 30 of 45 cases · median +3.2p n=45 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 20, 2026-704B-845.8B-840.6B-801.1B+4.0p—
Sep 15, 2026-840.6B-1214.3B-686B-681.2B+1.3p—
Aug 19, 2026-686B-361.6B-881.9B-927.1B+14p—
Jul 21, 2026-881.9B357.8B-90.4B-221.1B-6.8p—
Jun 16, 2026-90.4B-183.2B236.4B198.6B-2.1p—
May 20, 2026236.4B70.7B90.7B94.5B——
Apr 21, 202690.7B-103.7B-374.2B-367.8B-9.1p—
Mar 17, 2026-374.2B207.1B455.5B499.1B——
Feb 17, 2026455.5B-14.1B-208.5B-62.6B-5.8p—
Jan 22, 2026-208.5B—62.9B8B+8.8p—
Dec 16, 202562.9B-39.9B-4.2B74B-10p—
Nov 20, 2025-4.2B-156.8B-314.3B-302.4B-5.7p—
Oct 21, 2025-314.3B-86.3B-150.1B-171.2B-22p—
Sep 16, 2025-150.1B-366.1B-303B-292.8B+8.2p—
Aug 19, 2025-303B-380.3B-235.5B-247.6B+7.6p—
Jul 16, 2025-235.5B-392.5B-305.5B-291.6B+36p—
Jun 17, 2025-305.5B-407.3B-408.9B-349.2B-10p—
May 20, 2025-408.9B-428.3B-233.6B-291.7B-1.8p—
Apr 16, 2025-233.6B-296.2B182.3B191.4B+68p—
Mar 18, 2025182.3B-537.3B-856.6B-601.3B+11p—
Feb 18, 2025-856.6B-161.1B-33B-221B+4.1p—
Jan 22, 2025-33B-62.6B-384.2B-388.7B-4.0p—
Dec 17, 2024-384.2B-524.7B-357.7B-229.2B+22p—
Nov 19, 2024-357.7B-428.7B-187.2B-274.6B+21p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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