BOJ Policy Rate - ForexCracked
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Japan · Rates

BOJ Policy Rate JPY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 18 02:30 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 1%  

What this release is

The Bank of Japan, BOJ, sets its policy rate as a primary tool for monetary policy. This rate influences short term borrowing costs within the Japanese financial system. It reflects the central bank’s stance on economic conditions and inflation.

Forex traders closely monitor the BOJ Policy Rate because it directly impacts the attractiveness of holding yen denominated assets. Changes to the policy rate can alter interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies. These differentials are a key driver of currency valuations, influencing capital flows and the Japanese Yen’s exchange rate.

The BOJ Policy Rate release is typically considered a High impact event for the Japanese Yen. Market attention often focuses on the headline rate decision itself and any accompanying statements from the Bank of Japan. Unexpected changes or shifts in the central bank’s forward guidance can lead to significant market movements. The timing of these announcements can also be a factor in market reactions.

How hard it hits, measured

82 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
35pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
371pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY6.5p7.4p12p35p
AUDJPY3.8p5.7p8.0p22p
CADJPY4.2p5.8p7.6p26p
CHFJPY5.5p7.0p8.7p29p
EURJPY5.8p8.2p11p36p
GBPJPY6.7p9.5p11p38p
NZDJPY4.5p5.5p7.8p18p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Jul 31, 20261%<1.00%1%—+8.1p—
Jun 16, 20261%—0.8%—+20p—
Apr 28, 20260.8%—0.8%—-44p—
Mar 19, 20260.8%—0.8%———
Jan 23, 20260.8%—0.8%—+1.1p—
Dec 19, 20250.8%—0.5%—+9.0p—
Oct 30, 20250.5%—0.5%—+56p—
Sep 19, 20250.5%—0.5%—-30p—
Jul 31, 20250.5%—0.5%—-3.2p—
Jun 17, 20250.5%—0.5%—-35p—
May 1, 20250.5%—0.5%—+60p—
Mar 19, 20250.5%—0.5%—+15p—
Jan 24, 20250.5%—0.3%—-84p—
Dec 19, 20240.3%—0.3%—+68p—
Oct 31, 20240.3%—0.3%—-31p—
Sep 20, 20240.3%—0.3%—-35p—
Jul 31, 20240.3%—0.1%—+2.3p—
Jun 14, 20240.1%—0.1%—+57p—
Apr 26, 20240.1%—0.1%0.1%+25p—
Mar 19, 20240.1%—-0.1%-0.1%-2.4p—
Jan 23, 2024-0.1%—-0.1%—-25p—
Dec 19, 2023-0.1%—-0.1%—+94p—
Oct 31, 2023-0.1%—-0.1%—+68p—
Sep 22, 2023-0.1%—-0.1%—+43p—

Showing the latest 24 of 82 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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