BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Japan

BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 27 05:00 UTC · consensus 2.1% · previous 2.2%  

What this release is

The Bank of Japan publishes the Trimmed Mean Core Consumer Price Index, a monthly measure of inflation in Japan. This indicator tracks the year-over-year change in consumer prices, excluding the most volatile price movements to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. It focuses on the prices sector.

Forex traders monitor this report closely as it provides insight into Japan’s inflation environment. Inflation is a primary factor influencing the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained changes in price trends, as indicated by this measure, can influence the central bank’s stance on interest rates and other policy tools. Such policy shifts can in turn affect the Japanese Yen’s valuation.

The BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI y/y typically carries a Medium impact rating for the Japanese Yen. Market participants generally focus on the headline figure and its implications for the Bank of Japan’s future policy direction. After past releases, the market has reacted to the data’s potential influence on the central bank’s assessment of price stability.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
41pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.4p2.6p4.5p10p
AUDJPY1.4p2.8p5.5p9.6p
CADJPY1.2p1.8p3.8p7.4p
CHFJPY1.2p2.3p3.7p7.7p
EURJPY1.7p2.4p5.6p9.2p
GBPJPY2.1p3.5p7.3p13p
NZDJPY1.4p2.6p4.9p7.6p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 17 of 32 cases · median +0.3p n=32 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 25 of 37 cases · median +2.6p n=37 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour higher in 9 of 13 cases · median +1.8p n=13 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Sep 25, 20262.2%2.2%2%2%+34p—
Aug 25, 20262.3%3.1%1.8%1.8%+2.0p—
Jul 28, 20262.7%2.7%1.7%1.7%-0.5p—
Jun 23, 20262.7%2.9%1.7%1.7%+4.1p—
May 26, 20262.8%2.1%1.8%1.8%+2.6p—
Apr 28, 20262.5%2.6%1.7%1.7%+12p—
Mar 26, 20262.2%1.6%1.7%1.7%——
Feb 25, 20261.7%1.7%1.9%—-14p—
Jan 27, 20261.9%2.2%2.2%—-8.8p—
Dec 23, 20252.2%2.5%2.2%—+1.7p—
Nov 26, 20252.2%2.4%2.1%—+7.6p—
Oct 28, 20252.1%2.5%2%—+3.7p—
Sep 24, 20252%1.9%2%—-2.6p—
Aug 26, 20252%2.4%2.3%—-6.2p—
Jul 23, 20252.3%2.5%2.5%—+22p—
Jun 24, 20252.5%2.3%2.4%—-11p—
May 27, 20252.4%2.5%2.2%—+41p—
Apr 22, 20252.2%2.4%2.2%—-27p—
Mar 25, 20252.2%2.1%2.2%—-13p—
Feb 26, 20252.2%1.7%1.9%—-0.5p—
Jan 28, 20251.9%1.5%1.7%—-8.6p—
Dec 24, 20241.7%1.3%1.5%—-1.0p—
Nov 26, 20241.5%1.6%1.7%—-12p—
Oct 22, 20241.7%1.6%1.8%—-2.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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