10-Year JGB Auction - ForexCracked
Japan

10-Year JGB Auction JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 5 03:35 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 3.101%  

What this release is

The 10-Year JGB Auction measures the demand and pricing for Japanese government bonds with a decade-long maturity. This auction is conducted by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, whose official website is mof.go.jp. It provides insight into the cost of government borrowing and investor appetite for long-term Japanese debt within the market sector.

Forex traders monitor these auctions because the yields on 10-Year JGBs serve as a benchmark for interest rates across Japan’s financial markets. Changes in these yields can influence the relative attractiveness of the Japanese Yen, as they reflect expectations for future monetary policy and the broader economic outlook. The bond market’s reaction can signal shifts in investor sentiment towards JPY assets.

Upon release, market participants typically focus on the auction’s key metrics, such as the accepted yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, and the tail. Strong or weak demand, as indicated by these figures, often generates immediate price movements in JPY crosses. While the impact can be notable, it is generally absorbed by the market shortly after the results are published.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
52pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.7p2.3p4.8p10p
AUDJPY1.7p3.3p6.1p15p
CADJPY1.6p2.2p4.0p7.6p
CHFJPY1.5p2.5p4.1p7.5p
EURJPY2.0p2.9p4.8p9.1p
GBPJPY2.2p3.5p6.2p12p
NZDJPY2.1p2.9p5.8p9.8p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 6, 20263.101%—2.995%—+14p—
Sep 1, 20262.995%—2.84%—+4.0p—
Aug 4, 20262.84%—2.729%—-2.4p—
Jul 2, 20262.729%—2.649%—-10p—
Jun 2, 20262.649%—2.54%—+1.6p—
May 12, 20262.54%—2.35%—+5.6p—
Apr 2, 20262.35%—2.122%—+6.1p—
Mar 3, 20262.122%—2.249%—+4.2p—
Feb 3, 20262.249%—2.095%—-11p—
Jan 6, 20262.095%—1.872%—-15p—
Dec 2, 20251.872%—1.658%—+4.9p—
Nov 5, 20251.658%—1.635%—+1.3p—
Oct 2, 20251.635%—1.612%—+7.0p—
Sep 2, 20251.612%—1.462%—+17p—
Aug 5, 20251.462%—1.442%—-6.6p—
Jul 1, 20251.442%—1.512%—+12p—
Jun 3, 20251.512%—1.274%—+0.4p—
May 8, 20251.274%—1.405%—+5.2p—
Apr 3, 20251.405%—1.404%—-25p—
Mar 4, 20251.404%—1.26%—-13p—
Feb 4, 20251.26%—1.14%—+9.2p—
Jan 7, 20251.14%—1.084%—-19p—
Dec 3, 20241.084%—0.997%—+23p—
Nov 7, 20240.997%—0.871%—-38p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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