BoJ Interest Rate Decision preview: Consensus expects rates to remain below 1.00%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest Interest Rate Decision for the Japanese Yen on July 31, 2026, at 02:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates the rate to remain below 1.00%, consistent with the previous reading. This event carries a High impact rating, suggesting potential for significant market reaction if the outcome deviates from expectations or if accompanying statements signal a policy shift.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across JPY pairs. Our data shows that the median 1-hour move after past BoJ Interest Rate Decisions has been 8 pips for AUDJPY, CADJPY, and NZDJPY. CHFJPY has seen a median move of 9 pips, while EURJPY and GBPJPY both recorded median moves of 11 pips. USDJPY typically sees a median 1-hour move of 12 pips. For top-quarter releases, moves have exceeded 39 pips for GBPJPY, 36 pips for EURJPY, 35 pips for USDJPY, 30 pips for CHFJPY, 26 pips for CADJPY, 22 pips for AUDJPY, and 18 pips for NZDJPY. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent decisions include an actual rate of 1% in June 2026, which saw USDJPY move +20 pips in one hour. In April 2026, an actual rate of 0.8% led to a -44 pips move for USDJPY. Other recent prints were 0.8% in March 2026, 0.8% in January 2026 with a +1.1 pips USDJPY move, 0.8% in December 2025 with a +9.0 pips USDJPY move, and 0.5% in October 2025 which resulted in a +56 pips USDJPY move.