BoJ Interest Rate Decision preview: Market anticipates potential rate hike
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest Interest Rate Decision on September 18 at 02:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a rate below 1.25%, marking a potential increase from the previous reading of below 1.00%. This release is rated as having a High impact on the JPY. The focus will be on any shifts in the central bank’s stance on monetary policy, particularly given the anticipated move.
Historically, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision has led to notable volatility in JPY crosses. Our data, measured over 80-82 releases since 2015, shows a median 1-hour move of 12 pips for USDJPY, with top-quarter releases moving 35+ pips. EURJPY and GBPJPY have seen median 1-hour moves of 11 pips, with top-quarter moves of 36+ pips and 38+ pips respectively. CHFJPY recorded a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 29+ pips. AUDJPY, CADJPY, and NZDJPY have shown median 1-hour moves of 8 pips. Top-quarter releases for these pairs moved 22+ pips, 26+ pips, and 18+ pips respectively.
Recent BoJ Interest Rate Decisions have shown varied market reactions. The July 31, 2026 release, with an actual rate of 1% against a forecast of <1.00%, saw USDJPY move +8.1 pips in the hour following. The June 16, 2026 decision, with an actual 1%, resulted in a +20 pips USDJPY 1-hour move. Conversely, the April 28, 2026 release, with an actual 0.8%, saw USDJPY move –44 pips. Earlier prints include an actual 0.8% on March 19, 2026, and a +1.1 pips USDJPY 1-hour move after an actual 0.8% on January 23, 2026. The December 19, 2025 release, also at 0.8%, led to a +9.0 pips USDJPY 1-hour move.