Australia Monthly CPI Indicator comes in at 3.9% against 5.1% consensus

Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator for July came in at 3.9% year over year. This figure was significantly below the consensus expectation of 5.1% and marked a decrease from the previous month’s reading of 4.1%. The actual print represented a -23.5% surprise compared to the market consensus.

Following the release, the Australian dollar saw broad depreciation against major currencies. AUDUSD moved -22 pips 15 minutes after the release, while AUDJPY dropped -38 pips. AUDCAD declined by -27 pips, and AUDCHF fell -17 pips. AUDNZD was down -23 pips. Conversely, EURAUD gained +46 pips, and GBPAUD rose +50 pips. For context, the 15-minute moves for AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDNZD, and AUDUSD were near or above their median 1-hour moves of 21 pips, 16 pips, 22 pips, and 17 pips respectively. AUDJPY’s -38 pips move was above its median 1-hour move of 20 pips and approached its top-quarter release threshold of 30+ pips. EURAUD’s +46 pips move was above its median 1-hour move of 38 pips, and GBPAUD’s +50 pips move was also above its median 1-hour move of 45 pips. After past releases, AUDUSD’s direction reliability has been 65%.