Average Hourly Earnings m/m preview: consensus 0.3% after a 0.1% print

US Average Hourly Earnings m/m is due on 2026-11-06 at 13:30 UTC and carries a High impact rating. The market consensus is 0.3%, compared with a previous reading of 0.1%. The forecast therefore points to a faster monthly pace than the last print, which makes the gap between the actual figure and expectations the main thing to watch when the number lands.

Our price feed shows this release has moved the dollar pairs by a measurable amount. On EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after the release is 21 pips, and the top quarter of releases moved 41+ pips (124 releases since 2015). GBPUSD has a median of 22 pips and a top-quarter threshold of 48+ pips. USDJPY shows 26 pips and 43+ pips, and USDCAD shows 26 pips and 41+ pips. USDCHF has a median of 17 pips and 32+ pips in its top quarter. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both have a median of 16 pips, with top-quarter moves of 27+ and 29+ pips. XAUUSD has a median of 55 pips and 126+ pips in the top quarter. Direction has been mixed: on EURUSD, the 1-hour move followed a consistent direction only 59% of the time in our live sample.

Recent prints have varied. The last six releases were 0.1% on Oct 02 (forecast 0.3%, EURUSD +21 pips), 0.3% on Sep 04 (forecast 0.2%, -10 pips), 0.1% on Aug 07 (forecast 0.3%, +42 pips), 0.3% on Jul 02 (forecast 0.3%), 0.3% on Jun 05 (forecast 0.3%, -50 pips) and 0.2% on May 08 (forecast 0.3%, +14 pips). Even an in-line print on Jun 05 was followed by a large EURUSD move.